IMO: As of now the U.K. is joined at the hip with the U.S. An interesting one would be Germany. Is Merkel and the CDU that strong? If the SPD gets back in, or even gets more power the Afghan EXIT door is opened. It would not be so much a show of non-military support, but as you say the global, and european public opinion on Af/Pak would change.
Sounds like NATO will need to be renamed soon. Good point on Germany too, we should have included both possibilities. I would say UK looks weaker Afghanistan only because Germany isn't stuck in the same combat role. Losing either state would be a blow to what will be a shrinking US coalition in 2011. Although it's hard to imagine either skipping out on their own, the political trends on Afghanistan in both countries don't look good.
IMO: As of now the U.K. is joined at the hip with the U.S.
ReplyDeleteAn interesting one would be Germany. Is Merkel and the CDU that strong? If the SPD gets back in, or even gets more power the Afghan EXIT door is opened.
It would not be so much a show of non-military support, but as you say the global, and european public opinion on Af/Pak would change.
bigger picture of military bases
ReplyDeletehttp://www.counterpunch.org/roelofs02192010.html
Sounds like NATO will need to be renamed soon. Good point on Germany too, we should have included both possibilities. I would say UK looks weaker Afghanistan only because Germany isn't stuck in the same combat role. Losing either state would be a blow to what will be a shrinking US coalition in 2011. Although it's hard to imagine either skipping out on their own, the political trends on Afghanistan in both countries don't look good.
ReplyDeleteThen there is this about Nato and american Nukes. Could there be a new tidal change?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.commondreams.org/headline/2010/02/20