Myanmar Insurgents Join Forces

How Not to Stop Thailand's Bleeding

An armored vehicle ramming into the Red Shirt's camp.
"Troops fired almost continually into the protest zone early Wednesday," reports The Washington Post.

Sean Boonpracong, a red shirt spokesman speaking to Al Jazeera amidst the assault, warned, "This will be a second Tiananmen Square. You will see the biggest massacre ever aired on television."

"I cannot see the operation coming to a successful end without further violence and without further losses," said Sukhumbhand Paribatra, Bangkok's governor. "I was hoping to have a more optimistic message, but I cannot."

Thailand's government may not have faith in negotiations with the Red Shirts, but overwhelming force is even less likely to resolve the conflict. A threat this may be, but Bangkok is making a mistake. Even if it wins this battle it could spark a war.

Only a political solution will create true peace.

[UPDATE: Fortunately several Red Shirt leaders have surrendered. Unfortunately the threats they endured will ensure the next stage of negotiations is no easier than the first. Riots have also hit the Thai Stock Exchange, a news station, banks, and other installations.

The AP reports, "The Thai government has declared a curfew in Bangkok from 8 p.m. until 6 a.m. as rioting and violence spread across the capital."]

Stopping Thailand's Bleeding

At least two questions have been answered in the short-term: Bangkok is boiling and the Red Shirts have issued a call for international mediation. The next question: will Thailand wait for the conflict to go international?

“We want the UN because we don't trust we will receive justice from organizations in Thailand," Nattawut Saikuar, a protest leader, said in the wake of mounting casualties. "What's urgent is to stop the deaths of people. Political demands can wait.”

Rejecting the Red Shirts’ demands, government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn told reporters, "no governments allow any organizations to intervene in their internal affairs.”

“We cannot retreat now,” vowed Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva,

Maybe Thailand is half way out of its crisis; the Red Shirts weren’t any likelier to accept outside intervention. But now that only the government stands in the way of international mediation, Bangkok would be wise to extinguish the crisis rather than detonate it. A drop in morale among Red Shirts isn’t visible in the several thousand hard-core members still waging street battles with Thai troops.

Defying the latest 3 PM ultimatum is probable, as the death of rebel general Seh Daeng is more likely to provoke silence than instill fear. Conspiracy theories are even floating that he was targeted by dissenting Red Shirts, and his death has created an ideal flash point.

Sean Boonpracong, a red shirt spokesman, told Al Jazeera, "the situation is deteriorating to a point that if the government is smart, it's best they call off the dogs and push the army back to the base - it's getting to be a civil war.”

But our advice to the Thai government goes beyond preventing a potential rural, guerrilla-civil war; such a trend is already developing. We’re concerned with what’s yet to occur.

History and logic assume that the Red Shirts won’t back down without having their demands sincerely considered or fulfilled. Total suppression is impossible and attempts will backfire. While the government has been accused of failing to uphold its ultimatums, Thai troops haven’t gone easy on the Red Shirts either.

More conflict is inevitable as both sides prove they’re dead serious of their actions.

Thus Thailand appears poised to descend into low-intensity guerrilla warfare in the absence of internal compromise or international mediation. Foreign diplomats are active in Bangkok but a more hands on approach is necessary. Red Shirt protests will be wielded as the primary weapon and a shield for violent acts, and Bangkok could see urban warfare unlike the present battles.

It makes sense - the Red Shirts must be considering the possibility - to launch attacks outside the normal battle ground. Sporadic attacks throughout the city would knock the government on its heels and possibly force negotiations. But it could also spawn a deadly crackdown, which in turn would fuel another cycle of violence and increase the odds of a real civil war.

At that point would the conflict remain internal?

While the criteria may already be met for international mediation, the conflict is also in danger of becoming truly international. If we were the Patani United Liberation Organization - and we know they’re watching closely - a civil war would provide perfect cover to declare independence from Thailand.

At this point the PULO, along with the many pieces that compose the Patani insurgency in southern Thailand, doesn’t appear in the position to make such a bold move. The insurgency, while rooted in a deep history, only took off in the last decade. It would likely need its own international support in Malaysia.

Yet PULO makes no secret of its desire to secede from Thailand, whether as an independent state or autonomous region of Malaysia. Force hasn’t worked against the PULO and it won’t against the Red Shirts. If the core issues of Thailand’s crisis stay unresolved and the country enters a protracted state of low-intensity warfare, the conditions may be ripe for PULO to move next year and beyond.

PULO has remained dormant to the outside world because it wisely refuses foreign militants, fearing a crackdown from Thailand and America. Its patience has waited for an opportunity like now. Though Thailand might be able to handle the Red Shirts and PULO simultaneously, every precaution should be taken to prevent an internal crisis from morphing into an international conflict.

Even if that paradoxically requires involving the international community.

When will Bangkok Boil?

Thailand’s latest political crisis, now in its third month, has been a series of anti-climaxes. More than once the government has resorted to force to dislodge the Red Shirts from their protest camp in the Rajaprasong shopping district. Each time the Red Shirts suffered casualties but held their ground.

The situation can’t go on like this indefinitely though. At some point the ebb and flow will finally tip and oust either the Red Shirts or Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. We can only guess whether now is that time, because the situation always sounds ripe to explode.

"Their refusal to stop the protest meant that the conditions that were set are being canceled, including the election date," said government spokesman Panitan Wattanayagorn.

Accordingly, Army spokesman Col. Sansern Kaewkamnerd said that security forces "will not use force at this stage,” though only one stage theoretically separates the use of force. Water and electricity to Rajaprasong will be cut at midnight, less than 10 hours from now.

Telephone signal will also be cut off, while buses, trains, and waterway services around the rally site will be blocked.

"This is a full-scale measure to limit the freedom of protesters and to close down the area 100 percent, starting at midnight," Sansern said. "The measures to cut water and power are the first measures. If the protest does not end, we have to fully enforce the law which may involve using force to reclaim the area.”

Though the crisis may have yet to reach its boiling point, some crafty politics and a few change of hearts will be necessary to reduce the temperature, which continues to climb. The latest leg of the crisis stems from the Red Shirts’ demand that Vejjajiva and Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban stand trial for protester deaths.

While Suthep told reporters he was, “ready to enter the legal procedure,” the Red Shirts countered that they want him charged with manslaughter. Nor are they happy that Vejjajiva refused their demands completely, creating the perfect storm for violence.

The "red-shirts" can not negotiate anymore Vejjajiva said, and his spokesman Panitan echoed, "He said there will no longer be any more compromises or conditions.”

And even when factoring in the need for psychological warfare, the Red Shirts are serious about refusing to give in and unafraid to shed blood.

Weng Tojirakarn, a Red Shirt leader, vowed to anyone that would listen, "None of the red shirts are afraid of your threats to cut water and power. We will run at soldiers with our two bare hands even if they fire at us with assault rifles."

"The prime minister must not threaten us and must not disperse us," Tojirakarn said in comments to Thailand’s The Nation, the Associated press, and Reuters. "If he wants more deaths, so be it. I don't."

"Whatever measure you use, we are not scared," he said.

The only thing more certain than bloodshed is that force won’t provide a solution. This conflict cannot end without a political settlement, one connected to the overall conflict between ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Somehow this matter needs to be resolved permanently or Thailand will continue swinging between Yellow and Red moods.

Neither Thailand’s democracy or economy can afford to be interrupted every two years. With all this in mind, should at least some form of international assistance - diplomatic and legal - be considered, possibly an international court? Thais notoriously oppose outside intervention, but how long do they want to keep riding this roller-coaster?

Tell us if we’re wrong. Any feedback from Thais would be most appreciated.

Bloody Future For Bangkok?

Not hard to see Thailand’s security crackdown coming. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has warned the Red Shirts will be “removed” from their protest site at Rajprasong, a shopping district in Bangkok, within 48 hours if they don’t disband. The Red Shirts are vowing to hold their ground.

But they also provide another view. While the two objects may not collide directly, that's not how several Red Shirt leaders survey the battlefield.

First one Red Shirt, Natthawut Saikua, claimed he has inside knowledge that Abhisit had ordered an operation if the protesters refused to withdraw. Jatuporn Promphan, another red-shirt leader, said Army chief General Anupong Paochinda has ordered 70 companies of police and heavy weaponry to be deployed.

According to The Nation:

“Jatuporn said Anupong had instructed 70 companies of police to report to him at the 11th Infantry Regiment by noon today. He said 23 companies of soldiers would move to Lumpini Park, three companies of quick-response units, 200 motorcycles and pickup trucks - apart from 150 motorcycles from other military units that would operate in plainclothes but be fully armed with M16 and A2 guns, including 2,000 shotguns.

About 80 of them would disguise themselves and mix with red-shirt protesters and would shoot at the leaders when the crackdown order was issued, he claimed. Four Black Hawk helicopters and a Chinook helicopter would be used. Twenty special task force officers were being readied to rappel down ropes and capture red-shirt leaders.

Centre for the Resolution of the Emergency Situations spokesman Colonel Sansern Kaewkamnerd admitted they were preparing to suppress the protesters at Rajprasong but waiting for the right timing. He confirmed the deployment of 70 companies of police from the Police Region 1-7 to execute the crackdown. Police commanders of seven regions would oversee their subordinates and work under the policy of the centre.”

Jatuporn said the crackdown would be carried out today or tomorrow. Propaganda or reality? The wait won't be long.

"We are ready to fight till death,” promised Jatuporn. “No matter how many weapons they are going to use.”