There Will Be Blood

Robert Mugabe’s best skill appears to be running with power. Taking the stage a day after renewing his leadership for five years during ZANU-PF’s party congress, headlines of factional infighting, tribal imbalance, and old age were whitewashed by war trumpets.

"We must begin to work for the party, never for personal egos.” he said on Sunday. “We must begin to organize our people for the party... must not be defeated like we were last year. We go back stronger, better focused party, ready and rearing to take the enemy who has sought our ruin."

While an opposing political party might be metaphorically termed “the enemy” in a democracy, Mugabe’s definition is literal. He perceives Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC is an existential threat to be resisted with all possible means - political, economic, and military.

Organized violence during Zimbabwe’s 2008 election and low-level violence thereafter, combined with government mismanagement, is the real Mugabe. University of Zimbabwe lecturer John Makumbe said the address showed Mugabe's desperation after 29 years in power.

"He was shouting and screaming about factionalism, but really he was saying 'we are dead' as a party,” Makumbe described. “Levels of hatred against Zanu-PF are so high among Zimbabweans that the congress is just a show and it is largely irrelevant to the future.”

While Makumbe may be correct in assessing the level of opposition to ZANU-PF, Mugabe is anything but irrelevant after 85 years. Desperation makes him all the more dangerous and hindsight isn’t needed to see what’s coming.

"Elections are not far off," he told ZANU's congress. "The inclusive government was given a short life. The remaining part of it is short. In fact it has lived more than half its life. May I state this clearly and categorically, as Zanu-PF the defense of our sovereignty rests with us and with no other. Any maneuvers to tamper with the forces will never be entertained by us."

Mugabe’s collective speeches amount to a declaration of war on Tsvangirai and MDC, had they not already been at war. If there is any advantage, at least the truth has been thrust into the open. Power-sharing is a dead-end. Either ZANU or MDC will ultimately emerge as the ruling power.

As such, ZANU must be expected to use every means possible to block MDC. Based on recent history and Mugabe’s “vision,” we have every reason to believe violence remains the key instrument to maintaining power. As a result, it’s time President Obama got his hands dirty in Zimbabwe.

Assuming that the next election will turn violent, America and the international community have three options. Ignoring Zimbabwe is always a possibility, but is this strategy the best of the worst, or worst of the best?

The term “ignoring” defines zero change on the ground. America deployed a barrage of diplomacy and economic sanctions at Mugabe as beat his way to power, but he remains in power and the MDC marginalized, easily predictable. Tsvangirai is surviving by an SADC thread, not Zimbabwe’s acting prime minister.

On one level leaving Zimbabwe alone makes sense - the same level why going into Somalia or Sudan is a gambit. These states must be stabilized for regional and international security, and America could very well profit individually, but the risk of doing so is exceptionally high.

Obama has so far chosen George Bush’s failed course. Granted he’s currently powerless to alter it. Zimbabwe is a relatively new hot spot and Obama has had no time to build a policy. America can’t afford to support a serious endeavor anyway, and commanding so many operations would be its own burden.

Afghanistan, Iran, and Zimbabwe don't mix.

But Obama has a problem - everything he said in his Nobel speech. He mentioned Zimbabwe, albeit briefly, because posture children for human rights abuse and political oppression are hard to ignore. Mugabe is a tyrant just like Saddam Hussein was. Doing nothing contradicts everything Obama advocated, especially standing up when it’s hard.

"Those who seek peace cannot stand idly by as nations arm themselves for nuclear war," he said. "The same principle applies to those who violate international law by brutalizing their own people. When there is genocide in Darfur, systematic rape in Congo or repression in Burma = there must be consequences."

While ignoring Mugabe is pragmatic, the West's condonation contradicts everything America preaches to the Middle East, Africa, and world in general. Zimbabwe doesn’t qualify as a “just” war because Mugabe hasn’t directly attacked America, but because the suffering in Harare is unjust.

We’ve argued that Sudan, if any African state, justifies military/JSOC/CIA intervention because of its 2011 secessional election. This built-in deadline injects the conflict with an urgency not presence in Somalia, the DRC, or humanitarian crises like Zimbabwe.

But the prospect of Mugabe forcing elections in 2011 presents the same situation as Sudan.

If President Obama doesn’t do anything beyond what Bush chose to do, he can expect violence. He can expect bloodshed and death. He can expect Mugabe to hold onto power with his dying grasp, and equally so with those behind him. He can expect this black-eye to shine for six months or a year.

Mugabe wants to hold an election so that he can expel Tsvangirai, with the clear intent that he won’t share power again. Obama has two options here.

He can sponsor and oversee, directly or through the UN, Zimbabwe’s election. Tsvangirai has actually called for a UN election. If he wants it then Obama should make the attempt. Push the UN. Mugabe will resist, but isn’t that the point. What else is the UN for? Not resolving crises?

Back it up if worst comes to worst, and get the AU military involved. The thing about a fair election is that Mugabe would lose in a landslide. The UN failed to prevent a fair election in Afghanistan, but Tsvangirai would be the undisputed winner unlike Karzai. Zimbabwe isn't really at civil war, or any war.

Everyone wants to live in peace except those on top.

Two options are actually one. Hosting the election opens the probability of US/NATO troops, to protect the populace if Mugabe resists and eliminate the necessary targets to install Tsvangirai firmly in power. The presidency is, by the last election, rightfully his and should be after the next. Then sanctions can be lifted and the country can rebuild.

Naturally any military operation would be complex, and political science is based largely on theory. But bloodshed is inevitable without or without action.

The CIA and JSOC would go in first to protect Tsvangirai and open the door for multiple stages of action. Mugabe could be picked off by a drone, or seized by JSOC and tried in a Zimbabwe court; the army must be left intact as must as possible, with Mugabe's private militias disarmed.

If the head can’t be cut off, American military might along with arming elements of the MDC could be enough to rescue Zimbabwe. Just war isn't just about being attacked, but about having no other recourse.

There can be only one - Mugabe or Tsvangirai.

Paper Unity

Reality is on a roll. A day after Afghanistan nudged one step closer to runoff abyss, Zimbabwe Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai “disengaged” himself from President Robert Mugabe over “toxic issues.” Only last week Tsvangirai hailed “substantial progress” in Zimbabwe.

"If you were to have come to Zimbabwe last year between March and June, the level of human rights abuses was far higher and now people can live in peace," Tsvangirai told Reuters while in Valladolid, Spain to accept a lifetime achievement award. “There has been substantive progress, it's just that you have got one or two incidents and then it spoils the thing.”

Not only that, the MDC started a poll on September 24 asking its supporters to vote, “Should The MDC pull out of the inclusive government?” Tsvangirai announced last week, “I want to tell you the evaluation is overwhelmingly that we should stay in government and make this the direction the country needs to take.”

It turns out Tsvangirai wasn't being real.

“The detention of our party treasurer Roy Bennett has brought home the fiction of the credibility and integrity of the transitional government,” Tsvangirai told a press conference days after his return. “It has brought home the self-evident fact that ZANU-PF see us as a junior, fickle and unserious movement.”

Tsvangirai admitted he “papered over the cracks” in order to persuade the world that the unity government was progressing. But now, “Until confidence has been restored, we can't continue to pretend that everything is well.”

And if Tsvangirai had been fudging the truth, that means the West has too. America still maintains sanctions on Mugabe, but publicly acts without urgency along with Europe. Ian Kelly, a State Department spokesman, illustrated the point during his press briefing.

“Our position hasn’t changed,” he said, “it is that we are looking to Mr. Mugabe to implement the Global Political Agreement and foster democracy and respect for human rights. We do understand that the MDC has indicated that it will disengage from the government. But our position remains the same, that there is a way forward in place through this Global Political Agreement, and we would urge President Mugabe to implement his part of it.”

This simply isn't reality.

Tsvangirai decried, “We have seen total abuse and disrespect of the GPA and in particular of the MDC. Ministerial mandates have been changed unilaterally, government internal rules have not been changed to recognize the new reality. Over and above this, some government agencies, in particular few components in the National Security forces, still behave as if the old order exists. The National Security Council itself has met only once in nine months.”

In a letter dated October 7th, Tsvangirai requested from Mugabe, “that your office institutes appropriate action against Brigadier (Justin) Mujaji to ensure his immediate cessation of illegal activities, in particular, the use of the Zimbabwe National Army to perpetrate unlawful acts.”

Tsvangirai accused Mujaji of evicting white settlers from their farms. Expanding on the trend, “We are also aware of the extensive militarization of the countryside through massive deployment of the military and the setting up of bases of violence that we saw after the 29th March 2008. Over and above this, we are aware of over 16 000 of Zanu PF youth functionaries who have been imposed on the government payroll.”

It’s safe to say Mugabe won’t be changing his ways, certainly the power cabal behind him isn’t. After stealing two elections and procrastinating for months just to sign a power-sharing agreement, eight months have brought a semblance of normality that runs paper deep.

“If you have been married for seven months and you find that the marriage has no chemistry, something is wrong,” said Tendai Biti, the MDC Finance Minister who opposed joining the unity pact.

ZANU couldn’t agree more. Spokesman Ephraim Masawi reacted, “If MDC wants to disengage... we don't have a problem with that. We were having problems with MDC, working together. We have been trying but it was not easy."

New battle, same war

Tsvangirai has boxed himself in now and he must be careful. With the truth exposed and battle lines starting to reform, he can only return to the government if, as he put it, “all outstanding issues are fulfilled, " or ZANU will eat him up. The chances of Mugabe conceding power are low based on his history, so where does that leave Tsvangirai?

“It is a constitutional crisis which should be resolved if Zanu-PF and its leadership know that there is a price to pay for procrastination,” he said.

That price is a call for emergency UN-sponsored elections. If he can't muster support for such desperate measure, Tsvangirai is pushing for elections in 18 months. In the meantime, “We have to manage our transition until such time as the MDC can be elected in its own right.” Except Mugabe stands a large chance of compromising any election.

Ultimately Tsvangirai needs outside help to uproot Mugabe's apparatus. The AU and SADC aren’t applying the necessary pressure and the West helplessly watches from beyond. Sanctions bounce off Mugabe and a UN-sponsored election is equally improbable to damage him unless America oversees it.

Realistically Tsvangirai stands alone, now and possibly in the future, but at least reality is finally shining through. A few morsels of food drift down into the deep.

Zimbabwe's Requiem

As Morgan Tsvangirai, Zimbabwe's prime minister, toured the halls of the White House with president Obama last week, one thought was on his mind: I need this. Not the White House but its power, the power to change reality. Power he still lacks.

Zimbabwe, “has gone through a very dark and difficult period politically,” Obama said after their meeting. “I congratulate him. Overall, in a very difficult circumstance, we’ve seen progress from the prime minister.”

Zimbabwe is still dark and difficult. Election turbulence and international attention have passed while leaving the root conflict intact. Tsvangirai is an easy choice over president and resident dictator Robert Mugabe, but beyond diplomatic support, how can America help revive Zimbabwe?

President Obama slipped a $73 million check in Tsvangirai’s pocket and wished him luck. 5,000 miles away in a dark, smokey room in Harare, Mugabe cracked a smile. He knows Tsvangirai needs a lot more than that.

A popular wave led by Tsvangirai’s party, the MDC, failed to dislodge Mugabe in the 2008 election and Zimbabwe crashed hard after years in a death spiral. Few states can sustain two fraudulent elections, a political crackdown that injured thousands, hyperinflation, 80% unemployment, 6 out of 12 million in need of food, and a cholera epidemic.

Tsvangirai is mending some areas since became prime minister in February, like inflation, food shortages, and infection, but Zimbabwe remains in a deep hole.

Tsvangirai repeatedly stated that Zimbabwe has no time frame. So much dirt was piled onto it that years will be necessary to excavate, and there’s no guarantee Mugabe will let him. Tsvangirai needs every last drop of help or he will fail. $73 million must be the tip of American assistance - if it reaches the right people, a big if.

Unfortunately, precise details of Zimbabwe’s status are fleeting. Past and current unrest has distorted or rendered obsolete much of its economic and social statistics. Tsvangirai recently sent his own mixed messages, but not enough to disguise reality.

Last week he told reporters that progress is, “being undermined by those that are threatened by the democratic changes contained in the global political agreement. Our state media remains partisan and prejudiced, freedom of association is not yet a right that all can enjoy. Our members continue to be the victims of political persecution... Those in government will tell you this government is walking on a thin thread.”

For whatever reason Tsvangirai was more optimistic while in Washington, telling David Frost in an interview, “There is no evidence that there is a general campaign of intimidation and violence in the country.” A few days earlier he claimed that the “period of acrimony” with Mugabe, who tried to kill him three times, is “over.”

But one minister in Tsvangirai’s party told the BBC that Mugabe’s circle is drawing up assassination lists she believes will be used in future elections.

“No-one feels safe in Zimbabwe,” Sekai Holland, Minister of the State in the office of the Deputy Prime Minister, said. “No-one - and I mean no-one. We haven't reached a ceasefire. We are still at a point where people have their guns cocked.”

It’s plausible that Tsvangirai adopted a less confrontational stance while in America, lest he give the impression of colluding with the West to neutralize Mugabe, but isn’t that what he really needs?

Tsvangirai's position is proof enough of his progress, in addition to mild political and economic improvements. Two years ago he was arrested before a rally and tortured by the Special Forces. Zimbabwe is better off now than it was and no one can expect it to spring to life again so soon after death.

At the same time, Zimbabwe cannot heal completely while Mugabe controls the army, media, and courts. Rumored to support a private militia, Mugabe will always be an obstacle for Tsvangirai and his supporters because they’re a threat, and threats are only forgotten when eliminated. The MDC is warning that the next election could be as violent as the last. If Tsvangirai’s strategy is to bide his time until then, Mugabe’s henchmen have sniffed it out.

Tsvangirai’s leadership and perseverance is admirable and he has the intellect to restore Zimbabwe if given the chance, but he will never get that opportunity with Mugabe’s amount of control. Zimbabwe is a zero-sum game. An increase in Tsvangirai’s power must come at the sake of Mugabe’s, who won’t give it freely.

What hope does Zimbabwe have? Humanitarian aid is necessary for suffering Zimbabweans, but it’s a band-aid, not the surgery that Zimbabwe requires. Foreign pressure from African states and the West failed to subdue Mugabe during the election, and another election could prove equally futile. Supporting Tsvangirai too much could trigger Mugabe's fear of the West.

That shouldn’t stop America and other countries from trying to help, but Zimbabwe needs some Voodoo.

Barring an invasion or coup, Tsvangirai is stuck with Mugabe for the foreseeable future. Power-sharing has left him a slice, better than nothing though not by much. Mugabe will continue to block Tsvangirai where he can and consolidate his power for future challenges.

Zimbabwe can’t rise from its grave as long as Mugabe sits on top of it.