May 3, 2012

Letters From Abbottabad: Bin Ladin Sidelined?

This report is a study of 17 de-classified documents captured during the Abbottabad raid and released to the Combating Terrorism Center (CTC). They consist of electronic letters or draft letters, totaling 175 pages in the original Arabic and 197 pages in the English translation. The earliest is dated September 2006 and the latest April 2011.  These internal al-Qa`ida communications were authored by several  leaders, most prominently Usama bin Ladin.  In contrast to his public statements that focused on the injustice of those he believed to be the “enemies” of Muslims, namely corrupt “apostate” Muslim rulers and their Western “overseers,” the focus of Bin Ladin’s private letters is Muslims’ suffering at the hands of his jihadi “brothers”. He is at pain advising them to abort domestic attacks that cause Muslim civilian casualties and focus on the United States, “our desired goal.” Bin Ladin’s frustration with regional jihadi groups and his seeming inability to exercise control over their actions and public statements is the most compelling story to be told on the basis of the 17 de-classified documents. “Letters from Abbottabad” is an initial exploration and contextualization of 17 documents that will be the grist for future academic debate and discussion.
While each letter grants a deeper understanding of al-Qaeda's strategy and status, the presumed missive from bin Ladin to AQAP leader Nasir al-Wuhayshi offers insightful geopolitics on Yemen, Afghanistan, the Gulf and Africa. This letter appears to have blurred into the U.S. media's overall story - that bin Laden had lost control of his network - but deserves close examination as al-Qaeda decentralizes across multiple continents.

Analysis to be posted shortly.

No comments:

Post a Comment