Fourth-Generation Evolution On the High Seas

[Spoiler alert]

As the Southern Ocean’s insurgency nears the end of its eighth season, both sides should return to their respective ports without any loss of life to their crews. The certainty of this outcome wasn’t taken for granted; Japan’s state-funding whaling fleet and Sea Shepherd ventured into Antarctic waters after extensive safety precautions. The two sides also monitor each other’s new tactics and equipment during seasons, resulting in an technologically-infused arms race. Japan’s Institute of Cetacean Research (ICR) acquired the protection of arms guards after a confrontational 2011, while Sea Shepherd is expanding its arsenal of non-lethal tactics to counter numerical, mechanical and financial disadvantages.

“They have ten million dollars for every one million dollars we have to finance our three ships,” explained Captain Alex Cornelissen of the Bob Barker. “They have the full support of their government and literally have a license to kill because if any of us are injured or killed, their government will back them and justify their actions. Our governments condemn us just for tossing rotten butter on their decks.”

Both sides recently put their tools on their display after Sea Shepherd’s flagship, the Steve Irwin, finally located the ICR’s factory vessel, the massive Nisshin Maru. Paul Watson, Sea Shepherd’s veteran captain, claims to have executed a deceptive maneuver prior to discovering the Nisshin, in turn highlighting the Southern Ocean’s netwar. To negate Japan’s political influence in Australia and vote-buying within the International Whaling Commission (IWC), Sea Shepherd shields its movements within territorial waters and relies on sympathetic governments to block Japanese entry. More specifically, Watson maintains a tenuous relationship with foreign governments and relies on individual supporters to complete his political objectives. The captain shifted his evasive maneuvers from Australia’s Macquarie Island to New Zealand in order to shake the ICR’s harpoon ships, citing inaction from the Australian government.

"Whaling vessels are not welcome in New Zealand territorial waters," a spokeswoman for Murray McCully, New Zealand Foreign Minister, informed the ICR soon afterwards. "We have conveyed this message to the government of Japan. The government of Japan has assured us that the whaling fleet will not enter the New Zealand territorial sea."

Tony Burke, Australia’s Minister for Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, subsequently came under attack from Senator Bob Brown, leader of the Greens Party and a vocal supporter of Sea Shepherd: "The New Zealand government is highlighting what a spineless approach Canberra has taken to the aggressive Japanese whalers. Mr Burke is missing in action, while hundreds of whales are being slaughtered.”

Senator Brown was instrumental in reversing a visa denial for Sea Shepherd’s helicopter pilot, Chris Aultman. Australia’s government did approve the use of reconnaissance drones supplied by private supporters.

Sea Shepherd’s fleet of two wasted none of the time gained through its political and nautical tactics. Days after leaving New Zealand waters, the Steve Irwin located the Nisshin Maru inside Australia's Economic Exclusion Zone, “where they have been prohibited by order of the Australian Federal Court and the Government of Australia.” A variety of situations put the Sea Shepherd and its inflatable boats into direct or near-direct contact with the ICR’s fleet of harpoon and security vessels, and both sides are now attempting to back the other down through shows of force.

Normal confrontations go something like this: Sea Shepherd attempts to deploy its prop foulers in front of ICR vessels, or the ICR converges on Sea Shepherd in numbers to free the Nisshin Maru. To slow down the ICR’s search vessels, Sea Shepherd’s crew launches low-intensity “incendiary devices” (or flares), smoke bombs, glass bottles containing paint or butyric acid, and paintball-loaded air guns. At one point a Japanese crew member was reportedly struck by butyric acid but treated before any wounds developed. In a separate incident, three activists were injured after Japanese crew members counterattacked Sea Shepherd’s inflatable boats with bamboo poles and iron hooks.

The latest night-battle mixed technology and propaganda to create an accessible example of asymmetric warfare, including the potential fifth-generation evolution to civilian-on-civilian warfare. Once discovered, the Nisshin Maru fled as two harpoon vessels employed Sea Shepherd’s own tactic, dragging “300 meter long, thick cables” across the Bob Barker’s bow. The vessels then cut their running lights and pointed their spotlights on the Bob Barker’s deck, leading the ship to fire what the ICR termed a “high-power laser beam” for 50 minutes. More than 40 flares were also fired at the harpoon vessels to deter their course, while the ICR deployed its own small boats against the Bob Barker.

“Yushin Maru No. 2 and the Yushin Maru No. 3 repeatedly broadcasted a warning message and towed from their stern a rope with keep-your-distance-warning buoys as a containment measure,” the ICR said in its press release.

The media-savvy Watson has already claimed victory: “This has been a long and tough campaign, with the worst weather and ice conditions that we have experienced in the entire eight seasons we have ventured into the Southern Ocean Whale Sanctuary. But despite the temporary loss of our scout ship, the Brigitte Bardot, and our constant dogged pursuit of the Nisshin Maru, we have kept them on the run, taken two of their three harpoon vessels off the hunt for two months, severely crippled their killing capabilities and now once again we have shut them down 100%. Operation Divine Wind has been enormously successful.”

The success of Sea Shepherd’s latest campaign remains to be tallied at the season’s end. Watson predicts, "They won't get more than 30 per cent of their quota," a catch rate that hinges on government subsidies, but his group also pursues a zero-tolerance policy towards whaling. Sea Shepherd must concede the ICR’s financial advantage, forcing the group to wage a war of attrition that could extend throughout the decade. Sea Shepherd will never be able to compete with the ICR’s faster (and larger) ships, but its technological prowess continues to obstruct the ICR’s superior fleet and reduce its quota to minimal levels.

Although constantly on the offensive, Sea Shepherd’s actions can be defended on the belief that whaling in general is immoral. This ideology alone is sufficient to fuel a transnational network like Sea Shepherd. The group can also make a valid political case - more valid than Japan’s “research” argument - that the Earth’s oceans must be policed by citizens when governments fail to enforce international law. Tokyo and the ICR remain inherently powerful, but they’re positioned on the unsustainable end of a long-term insurgency in the Southern Ocean. Each year Sea Shepherd will return more determined and advanced than the last.

Japan Tosses Lawfare at Sea Shepherd

After piling up deterrents against Sea Shepherd and still running out of options to stop the Ocean’s premier direct-action group, Tokyo recently filed a lawsuit against Captain Paul Watson. Or the Tokyo-funded Institute of Cetacean Research, to be specific. In a joint statement released by the ICR and Kyodo Senpaku Kaisha, proud owner of the factory ship MV Nisshin Maru, defended their actions for “greatly contributing to the advancement of scientific knowledge of whale resources in the Antarctic.”

In order to continue their “research,” ICR and Kyodo Senpaku “are seeking a court order in the US District Court in Seattle, Washington that prevents SSCS and its founder Paul Watson from engaging in activities at sea that could cause injuries to the crews and damage to the vessels."

A savvy political thinker and tireless propagandist, Watson quickly responded with tempered amusement before systematically refuting the ICR’s “life-threatening” charges. Sea Shepherd’s tactics are designed to be non-lethal, even the various projectiles hurled onto the deck, and each sides has brought their vessels into contact with the other. Watson also defended Sea Shepherd from a political and moral standpoint, saying, “We are not down there protesting whaling, we are down there intervening against criminal activities.”

“We defend ourselves from being rammed, hit with water cannons, shot at, have concussion grenades and bamboo spears thrown at us, so yes, we defend ourselves,” he said.

Watson doesn’t expect anything to come of the ICR’s legal action. Calling the lawsuit “frivolous,” the primary documented incident involving Pete Bethune’s Ady Gil is too disputed for a jury to reach a verdict. Watson also claims to have registered and flagged his vessels outside of America, giving them “no authority over these ships so I don't know what they are hoping to achieve.” Watson also jabbed the Japanese court system: “Unlike Japan, the courts in the United States don’t automatically do what the government demands that they do.”

The ICR did get at least one thing right though: "Sabotage activities against the research fleet by SSCS and Paul Watson have been escalating over several years.” As the asymmetric side of the Southern Ocean, Watson has gradually built a small armada to compete with the ICR’s 5-6 ships. The ICR has responded with swarm tactics, ramming feigns and its own projectiles, and Tokyo deployed a patrol boat and armed guards to protect this year’s fleet. Both sides are intensifying their operations, leaving the ICR “with no choice but to file the safety-at-sea lawsuit.”

Tokyo is obviously exploring every avenue it can find to defeat what it perceives as a ragtag bunch of pirates. Watson explains how the ICR continues to operate despite missing its quota and a falling demand for whale meat: government subsidies. According to the Sea Shepherd’s admiral, the ICR was allocated $30 million just to deter his group from obstructing the back end of a whaling ship. These measures, in the Sea Shepherds terms, include “armed Security ships, mercenary thugs, Coast Guard officers, heavy weight public relations firms, and lawyers!”

Unlike other conventional actors caught in an asymmetric war, the ICR continues to fight along 4GW lines. Politically active in the IWO and Pacific countries in general, Tokyo exploits its technological and financial edge while doggedly pursuing non-military options. The ICR’s latest lawsuit means nothing in itself - buoys tossed in front of the Sea Shepherd’s steaming vessels. “This is simply a case of using the courts to harass us,” Watson cooly explained.

Perceived strategically, though, and Japan’s lawfare must be recognized on a 4G level.

The ICR recently launched another attack of greater consequence, one that received far less attention in the media and could have put a dagger into Operation Divine Wind. On Tuesday the Sea Shepherd’s invaluable helicopter pilot, Chris Aultman, informed reporters by email that his Australian visa had been denied. Aultman’s visa has been approved since 2005, but he didn’t “receive any information about why it was denied or when it will be issued.” Watson attributed the move to “the Japanese ambassador to Australia making phone calls,” and reflected on the time that he too was temporarily denied a visa.

Watson doesn’t hide his displeasure of the Australian government, but he does possess connections on the inside; the same man who would lobby his own case cleared Aultman for landing three days later. Australian Greens Leader Bob Brown defended Sea Shepherd’s actions while criticizing the patrol boat send by Japan’s Fishing Ministry: “The Australian Government must have a plan in place to ensure safety as the Sea Shepherd fleet prepares to leave Australian ports to defend hundreds of whales from Japanese whaling ships.”

Barring a reduction in either side’s fleet or a change in the terms of engagement, the coming winter battle will further escalate an asymmetric conflict in the South Ocean. Each side continues to improve its tactics, increase its numbers and boost its psychological state. Tokyo cannot stomach the possibility of defeat at the hands of Sea Shepherd; Sea Shepherd believes it sees light at the end of its tunnel. Both sides are prepared to raise the stakes rather than quit.

Although time and public awareness appear to favor Sea Shepherd, Japan possesses the national patience and determination to wage a protracted campaign.

Sea Shepherd Prepares For Hot Winter

Asymmetric wars aren’t the type to end with a signature or on a specific date. Paul Watson understood its prolonged nature from the beginning of his anti-whaling campaign. An obvious student of guerrilla warfare, Sea Shepherd’s admiral reacted with caution after Japan’s whaling fleet prematurely returned home last season, allowing his crew to celebrate while he envisioned the next battle. Judging 2011’s season finale of Whale Wars, Watson knew Japan’s Institute of Cetacean Research (ICR) would only return with greater force.

Once Fisheries Minister Michihiko Kano announced a new hunting season and expanded security measures, Watson responded, "We are going to find them. We are going to block their slipway and we will see what they are going to do. Our tactics are always the same, which is that we are not going to hurt anybody, but we are certainly going to take the risks that are necessary to block them. That is the key to the whole thing; blocking their operation. If they cannot load whales, they cannot kill them."

30 million square miles Southern Ocean play host to one of Earth’s more fascinating asymmetric conflicts: modern fourth-generation warfare (4GW) based on a traditional foundation. On one side, a developed government possessing numerical and technological superiority, along with foreign allies. On the other, what began as a single boat captained by a charismatic and knowledgeable individual has morphed into three ships, all manned by ideologically-committed crews (100 are signed on for Operation Divine Wind). This whale war is predominantly political and humanitarian, rather than militarily oriented, and the conflict’s later stage has played out on Animal Planet, instilling a deep propaganda element.

The war offers a textbook study of 4GW’s unlimited qualities: a state actor and non-state actor battling in international waters.

For now the Southern Ocean, despite its rising intensity, has also remained non-lethal for humans. Watson is acutely sensitive to holding the moral high ground, a necessity for legitimate resistance, while Japan would come under overpowering scrutiny in the event of a casualty. However rising tensions are increasing the odds of misfortune. Kano scratched at this unease when announcing, "Japan aims to resume commercial whaling, and to that end, we need to continue research whaling... Japan will conduct the research whaling while strengthening measures against acts of sabotage, including dispatching Fisheries Agency escort ships.”

Armed protection on existing vessels won’t change the tactical equation in ships. Watson is less unlikely to attempt another boarding, but publicity is flowing in and the MV Nisshin Maru’s slipway represents his only hard objective. The real advantage will be gained in ships; the IRC’s fleet currently outnumbers Sea Shepherd five to three, a relative balance favoring Watson’s fleet. Kano openly admitted that “a patrol boat” (possible more than one) will be guarding the IRC’s fleet, leaving open the question of how it would actually respond to Sea Shepherd’s blocking maneuvers. “Extra ships” jockeying for positioning increases the odds of a collision.

Additional security measures (such as projectiles) likely buttress the first layer of countermeasures.

Professor Al Gillespie of Waikato University recently told New Zealand’s TV ONE that he doesn’t expect his government to send its own guarding vessels, as some sympathetic politicians have called for. Believing the stakes to be too high, Gillespie inadvertently spelled out the conflict’s basics: "It's not a good situation. What you have here is a non-governmental organization (Sea Shepherd) and Japan going head to head, both looking for as much publicity as they can get." Gillespie is correct in toning down expectations of state-on-state conflict between Japan and Australia/New Zealand, but also concedes the logical outcome: heightened tensions.

Tension equals friction and friction raises the odds of injury or death. This confluence of factors has spiked the uncertainty hanging over the Southern Ocean.

“They will have to kill us to prevent us from intervening once again,” Watson insisted, words that won’t be taken lightly by Japan. “We will undertake whatever risks to our lives will be required to stop this invasion of arrogant greed into what is an established sanctuary for the whales.”

Perhaps most importantly, adding Japanese military escorts ups the political stakes. A recent poll found that a majority of Japanese respondents supported whaling, a potential nationalist reaction to being cornered. Meanwhile Australia and New Zealand are pushing back in hopes of avoiding a confrontation in December. Building on political developments in Auckland, Australian Environmental Minister Tony Burke explicitly warned Japan, “There is no justification for continued whaling. Australia unequivocally condemns commercial whaling. We don't accept that this is scientific, it should not go ahead.”

While the Australia government is known for talking tough in public and softening behind the curtain, sustained escalation in the Southern Ocean will increase pressure for a legal solution that cuts through the IWC’s vote buying. The Japanese government insists on pursuing its interests, whether ideological or economic. Watson hopes to either politically, economically or morally bankrupt the government’s “research.” That, in the end, is Sea Shephard’s goal as the asymmetric combatant.

Japan should realize that it’s fighting a losing asymmetric war - adding more troops will only intensify the resistance and push recruits into Sea Shepherd. The government is roughly tied in political support and logistical capabilities, and is being encircled in the information sphere.

Whaling popularly may be holding inside Japan and Sea Shepherd has many international opponents, but more pressure is building on the state than non-state actor. Watson also reaches out to the Japanese personally, asking himself, “how a nation of such achievements in art and philosophy, technology, and genius allow itself to be smeared by a small handful of bloody-handed men with harpoons and spears? I do not know the answer, but I do know that my Japanese history lessons have taught me one thing and that is to be true to one’s duty and to serve with absolute loyalty and honor.”

Still attempting a semblance of a “hearts and minds” campaign inside Japan, Watson told its people that Sea Shepherd, “is not the enemy of Japan, but we are the enemy of the ugly cancer that clings to the flag of Japan like a stubborn limpet, and that cancer is Taiji and the whaling fleet that plunders the waters of the Southern Ocean Whale Sanctuary.”

An Eastern maxim of warfare advises that defeat is a state of mind. It’s doubtful that Sea Shepherd will concede before the IRC.

Japan’s Nightmare Insurgency

Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution needs a 21st century updating. While Tokyo isn’t at war according to World War II standards, Japan does find itself ensnared in a fourth-generation war. Far from home, its “researchers” will don their armor and man their stations in preparation for battle with Sea Shepherd, the world’s preeminent whaling insurgency.

Surely Japan feels trapped in an endless quagmire, having battled the group for six years to no avail. Although initially overcoming the numerically weaker Sea Shepherd, last year the state-sponsored Institute of Cetacean Research (ICR) suffered a devastating blow after a mobilized Sea Shepherd halved its 1,000 whale quota. In typical 4G fashion, Sea Shepherd’s information network acts as though the ICR now stands on its last leg. Declaring this upcoming season as the end game, Sea Shepherd has dubbed its largest operation to date No Compromise.

A pure strain of fourth-generation warfare: state sponsored, civil-military proxies battling privately sponsored, government-supported, eco-insurgents in international waters. Doubtful that Milo Rowell and Courtney Whitney saw that coming.

Also certain is Japan’s need to wake up from poor strategy in the Southern Ocean. Its media reach doesn’t come near Animal Planet’s Whale Wars, while the conflict’s economic scale can quickly render whaling obsolete. By halving the IRC’s quota, Sea Shepherd reduced its profit by tens of millions. The group calculates that the IRC "needs to kill at least 765 whales to break even.” Avoiding Sea Shepherd’s fleet entails dispersing their own, limiting efficiency, or else launching helicopters or multiple fleets as a diversionary measure, increasing costs and further reducing whaling’s economic viability.

Conversely, a smaller fleet would produce an even smaller catch, and Sea Shepherd already believes that economic losses sustained from the 2010 campaign have depleted the IRC’s fleet. Last season was considered a tipping point no sooner than it ended, leaving a hyped-up Sea Shepherd to sniff blood throughout the summer. Now the IRC’s late departure from port is encouraging Sea Shepherd to believe this season could be the final showdown.

Said the groups leader, Paul Watson, from Bluff, New Zealand: "We're really just killing time waiting for the Japanese fleet to come down – they left a week late.”

“What this means for Sea Shepherd,” read a recent press release from the group, “is that for the first time in history, Sea Shepherd’s fleet will be in the Southern Ocean Whale Sanctuary before the Japanese whaling fleet arrives. We will be waiting for them this year, and the sooner we find them, the sooner we can shut them down.”

The Japanese fleet's mother ship, Nisshin Maru, left port on December 2nd, two weeks later than usual. It’s also believed that the IRC’s fleet, historically consisting of a factory ship, three harpoon ships, a supply ship, and two patrol vessels has been cut by three ships, including the supply ship Hiyo Maru No.2. Others speculate that the Nisshin Maru could be trying to keep a lower profile, but if so it hasn’t worked. Greenpeace holds yet another explanation: declining demand for whale meat.

Thilo Maack, a marine biologist with the group, claims the whalers “are up to their necks in it. First, they lose their tanker and refrigerator ship, then their sightings ship. Now they have to satisfy themselves with a halved quota and a drastically shorter hunting season.”

The final scenario remains unchanged though: whaling is losing its economic practicality.

A dark, bleak situation is staring down the IRC’s bow, one that could push them to drastic and potentially dangerous risks. Just as Sea Shepherd would lose its moral high-ground for injuring or killing a whaler, Japan’s credibility would hit rock-bottom in the event of Sea Shepherd casualties. With the environment already at the breaking point and IRC vessels returning with Coast Guard agents for the first time since 2007, New Zealand Foreign Minister Murray McCully recently forewarned what everyone is thinking.

"Here you have a pretty explosive cocktail,” he said. “You've got Japanese whalers going down there feeling somewhat angry about the developments last year... you've got protesters going down there saying they're going to take a very robust approach. Anyone who looks at what happened last year has got to be fearful there will be a loss of human life under those circumstances.”

Neither side will sail into battle with the intention of taking life, but they’re also unwilling to back down and mishaps are a common occurrence in warfare. Despite New Zealand’s political and moral support, Watson remains unsatisfied with the speed of political bureaucracy and lashed out at McCully for raising tensions. "I think it's volatile because he says it's volatile,” said Watson in New Zealand, when the truth is that both sides are boiling tensions.

Scott West, Sea Shepherd's director for investigations, tries to assure, "We choose our tactics and our methods in a way to be effective, but without causing injury. We're more than happy to destroy equipment but we won't cause harm."

Not only does Sea Shepherd lack total control of its tactics - its stink-bomb projectiles could strike a whaler in the head - non-lethal tactics are more than enough to agitate the IRC fleet. Its three-ship armada, including the “Gojira” (Godzillla) speed boat, is meant to intimidate and, to a degree, cause fear in the IRC. And an enormous reservoir of pressure accumulated from last season, which could lead to unpredictable effects. The Japanese government only had two options: order the IRC to refrain from sinking vessels or approve the use of necessary force. Though escalating the provocation of last year seems absurd, Sea Shepherd has Japan on the ropes and those cornered often lash out.

"The Gojira will allow us to find the fleet early on in the season and cut down their kill quotas right off the bat," said Locky MacLean, captain of the Gojira. "We reckon we can be down there before they get there and if we can find them, you know, before they commence their whaling operations they may not even get a chance to start whaling this season."

So what happens if Sea Shepherd does reach the whaling grounds before the IRC fleet and completely block their operations? What if the IRC can’t get away, much like Sea Shepherd’s prior inability to escape IRC patrol ships? Unless it quits and goes home, the IRC has no resort except force.

Nothing, though, is worse than taking foolish risks to prolong a losing strategy. The question multiplies as whale demand falls: why continue hunting an illegal animal for meat that many Japanese don’t even like? Why is whaling worth Sea Shepherd’s hassle? Japan’s history of whaling doesn’t completely answer the question. A powerful assortment of people control the whaling industry - Sea Shepherd alleges the Yakuza - clouding its decision making. But the general consensus among Japanese seems to be that no one should tell them what to eat or what not to eat.

And pride is difficult to swallow.

Yet Japan must realize the futility of its strategy. Though Sea Shepherd has plenty of detractors, few insurgencies possess majority support. Sea Shepherd enjoys a strong base and is now going for the majority - and success breeds success. While the IRC’s economics have stopped adding up, Sea Shepherd’s coffers are being filled by more than trendy celebrities. And Whale Wars waits to capture every move.

The IRC could be knocked out in 2011, further humiliating it and isolating its position while emboldening Sea Shepherd.

Few options present themselves before the Japanese government. Considering its strategic and tactical position, Tokyo must accept a political resolution to the conflict before it causes a loss of life, which would permanently impair its legal case in the region. Too little is gained at too great a risk. Japan must also save face while it still can, since image is key to the conflict’s equation.

While Australia readies its legal bid to stop whaling at the International Court of Justice, New Zealand will proceed with bi-lateral talks to convince Japan of ending its whaling campaign “at the earliest possible time." Although Tokyo is locked in another battle with the International Whaling Commission, it must probe these negotiations with the utmost seriousness as they offer an escape from being singled out on the international stage. Watson isn’t happy with New Zealand’s strategy as he considers the IRC at complete fault for the preceding season's events. McCully accused both parties of being at fault and his “message was directed at both parties."

Watson, who won’t accept any blame, retorted, "We jokingly refer to him as the Foreign Minister for Japan."

Watson believes that Japan should be given no mercy, all the more reason for Japan to reach a political settlement with regional powers. It would be a mistake to let this war drag on - an anchor stuck to the sea floor. New Zealand (or a diplomatic resolution in general) provides a tie if the IRC doesn’t wish to be defeated by Sea Shepherd.

And we’re assuming that nothing could be worse for Tokyo.

Whale Insurgency Heating Up

Off the Antarctic coast hides a fascinating insurgency. Even here ecoguerrilla warfare can be found, unconventional as it is. Japan and Sea Shepherd qualify for legitimate fourth generation warfare: state vs. non-state actor, blurring of military and non-military, foreign sanctuary, and the insurgent’s use of national and international media to break the government's will to fight.

Sea Shepherd will never possess Japan’s resources and it doesn’t need to. Having conceded Japan’s resource advantage, Sea Shepherd seeks to break its political will through international law and media. But this is no easy task and the situation’s trend indicates escalation - more funds, ships, tactics, and potential violence - in the coming seasons. The international community can’t delay beyond next year and wait for the war to turn deadly.

Like any insurgency the resolution lies in a political agreement, in this case defining and enforcing whaling laws.

Operation Waltzing Matilda, shadowing prior campaigns, has unfolded into another low-intensity battle - the Ady Gil’s destruction and attacks on the Bob Barker aren’t exactly shocking. Frustration is a volatile element as it facilitates unpredictably strong emotions and actions: jumping out of a helicopter onto a moving boat or ramming full speed into another boat while surrounded by ocean.

Having eliminated the Ady Gil a month earlier, one measly boat still managed to tail Japan’s factory ship. Its resource advantage had vanished, billions of dollars, four guard-ships, and advanced technology equalized by the asymmetric Bob Barker. Determination is a critical factor in insurgency - and losing to outnumbered foes drives a state crazy.

While the Ady Gil offered a soft target presenting no threat to the Shōnan Maru 2, chancing a run-in with the Bob Barker risked disabling both ships. The Shōnan Maru 2’s hull is likely reinforced and designed for such an act, all the more telling of Japan’s desperation. The encircling tactic and its grand finale have obviously been drilled before. The Shōnan Maru 2 is paid to stop Sea Shepherd at any cost, and would accumulate vexation were the crew to carry over between seasons.

Japan appears perfectly willing to sacrifice one of its ships for a Sea Shepherd vessel, something Sea Shepherd must treat with deep thought in order to counter. Canceling out one ship while leaving four others would make sense on Japan’s part - but only in the short-term. Operation Waltzing Matilda would finish a rousing success, halving the whaling fleet’s expected quota along with their profit.

So imagine how intense next year will be.

Where the war becomes most frightening is that all parties recognize the present escalation but have reached a point of no return. The more physical each season becomes, the more normal ship-to-ship contact becomes, the higher the odds of an eventual shooting incident. Sea Shepherd chief Paul Watson already claims to have been targeted with “warning balls” or “flash-bangs,” possibly an exaggeration but still revealing of the larger trend. Pressure has built over the years and will continue to cook the war until reaching death - the whale insurgency doesn’t have much space before that point.

At the same time, killing insurgents alone is never enough to destroy a movement and offers no salvation for Japan. Sea Shepherd may be ridiculed in some quarters but it’s also justified in the eyes of many, some richer than others, which is typical relations for insurgents. And the more Japan cracks down, the more funding Sea Shepherd will theoretically receive. Sink one boat and another will replace it like a guerrilla. The Ady Gil 2 is inevitable.

And the bigger Sea Shepherd grows, the more severe action Japan may be compelled to take.

Like any other insurgency, only neutralizing the root conflict holds out the prospect of resolving the whale war. Whaling laws must be defined and enforced if the international community wants Sea Shepherd to cease its activity, otherwise the war will intensify. Japan (along with Norway and Iceland) thus faces a tough decision. Though it may feel its sovereignty is being violated, many state and non-state actors feel the opposite. Ultimately Japan’s overwhelming resources could fall victim to fourth generation warfare, its political will broken by international opinion.

Japan should find an honorable compromise to the situation because it’s unlikely to outlast Sea Shepherd’s political advantage. The question is, if Sea Shepherd continues halving the Japanese quota, is whether Japan gives into inevitability or pushes the war over the edge.