tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1571201204115952544.post7253892015031608843..comments2024-03-15T00:21:37.019-07:00Comments on The Trench: Predicting Somalia’s Chaotic WindsJames Gundunhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/16141055666432969361noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1571201204115952544.post-61870423300549833632011-08-07T23:48:18.953-07:002011-08-07T23:48:18.953-07:00The drought and famine left al-Shabaab little choi...The drought and famine left al-Shabaab little choice except to concentrate on its own territory, which is becoming increasingly unstable. Now Mogadishu becomes a giant diversion. We could learn more of al-Shabaab's leadership once its aid policy reacts to Mogadishu's developments. I'm not expecting a unified decision any time soon, however the group does need to allow aid into its region to have any hope of counter-attacking in Mogadishu.James Gundunhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16141055666432969361noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1571201204115952544.post-3688333277906933832011-08-07T07:17:51.650-07:002011-08-07T07:17:51.650-07:00The sheer scale of the emergency has forced Al-Sha...The sheer scale of the emergency has forced Al-Shabab's hand, imo. It banned the World Food Program (WFP) and other international aid organizations from operating in its territory in February 2010. The movement’s local administrations have distributed food, water, medicines, and zakat, the annual charitable donation required of financially capable Muslims, to the poor. They have also conducted campaigns to vaccinate livestock and improve irrigation and farming. Last year they also accused the aid organizations of undercutting local farmers, distributing expired food leading to the spread of disease, and of having “covert political objectives”. In early July a spokesman, Ali Rage, announced that the ban was lifted and the movement was willing to allow in both Muslim and non-Muslim aid organizations to assist the population. Administrators from the WFP and other organizations quickly said that they were willing to work with insurgent leaders in facilitating the distribution of aid to millions of Somalis. However, after the UN declared famine in two districts, Bakool and Lower Shabelle, which are both under Al-Shabab control, A-S backtracked on their original call for international famine assistance. In a July press conference in Mogadishu, Rage accused the UN of having “external political motives” and of politicizing the famine as well as exaggerating its extent. He said the WFP was still banned. Chaos indeed.TONY @oakroydhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08304486783392151133noreply@blogger.com